Updated Academy Award predictions for early November

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On The Basis of Sex Movie Preview Felicity Jones Tom Lorenzo
Next week, the Independent Spirit Awards will announce their nominations, moving us forward in the fall precursor season. I won’t be predicting the nods this year, just since it’s an exercise in futility, but I will have more to say about them next Friday. Today, we’re focused on Oscar noms, which I will be continuing with every week or two, obviously. Before long, every week will be necessary, once the precursors come in hot and heavy. For now, we’re still just rearranging our proverbial dance cards based on hunches and buzz. It won’t be long though that things start to change in a notable way, one way or another.

For this update, I’ve mainly made small changes. We’re still waiting on a few things to begin screening, like The Mule and Vice. At the same time, we’ve just seen the debut last night of the Ruth Bader Ginsberg biopic On the Basis of Sex. Some of that buzz is included here. I’ve already seen Mary Queen of Scots, though that remains embargoed for now. Aside from that, it’s more of the same. A Star Is Born continues to be set for an incredible haul, Green Book looms large as a spoiler, The Favourite remains an X factor, and those who fully count out BlackKklansman can do so at their own peril. First Man probably has seen its fortunes fall the most, but only really in the major categories. It should still be a below the line giant. Anyway, take a look and see for yourself…

BEST PICTURE

1. A Star Is Born
2. Green Book
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Favourite
5. Roma
6. First Man
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. Vice
10. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 12. Widows 13. On the Basis of Sex 14. Boy Erased 15. Eighth Grade 16. The Front Runner 17. Welcome to Marwen 18. Mary Queen of Scots 19. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 20. Stan & Ollie 21. Wildlife 22. Cold War 23. The Old Man and the Gun 24. Bohemian Rhapsody 25. Beautiful Boy 26. Ben is Back 27. The Sisters Brothers 28. White Boy Rick 29. Sorry to Bother You 30. The Mule

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
3. Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
4. Damien Chazelle – First Man
5. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Peter Farrelly – Green Book 8. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 9. Adam McKay – Vice 10. Steve McQueen – Widows

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
4. Christian Bale – Vice
5. Lucas Hedges – Ben is Back (or Boy Erased)

Next in line: 6. Clint Eastwood – The Mule 7. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody 8. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie 9. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun 10. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – The Wife
2. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star Is Born
3. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back

Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns 7. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 8. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex 9. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma 10. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
4. Robert Forster – What They Had
5. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy 7. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman 8. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows 9. Russell Crowe – Boy Erased 10. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex (or Sorry to Bother You)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Vice
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
4. Emma Stone – The Favourite
5. Claire Foy – First Man

Next in line: 6. Marina de Tavira – Roma 7. Natalie Portman – Vox Lux 8. Linda Cardellini – Green Book 9. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Green Book
2. The Favourite
3. Roma
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade

Next in line: 6. Sorry to Bother You 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. On the Basis of Sex 9. A Quiet Place 10. Ben is Back

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. A Star Is Born
4. First Man
5. Boy Erased

Next in line: 6. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7. Wildlife 8. Black Panther 9. The Front Runner 10. Widows

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. Mirai

Next in line: 6. The Grinch 7. Smallfoot 8. Early Man 9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 10. Sherlock Gnomes

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Next in line: 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 8. Mary Queen of Scots 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. A Star Is Born

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Roma
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Cold War 7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. BlackKklansman 9. Black Panther 10. Annihilation

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. The Favourite
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. Colette

Next in line: 6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 8. A Wrinkle in Time 9. First Man 10. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST FILM EDITING

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. BlackKklansman
5. Roma

Next in line: 6. The Favourite 7. If Beale Street Could Talk 8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Vice 10. The Front Runner

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Mary Poppins Returns
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 4. The Favourite 5. A Star Is Born 6. A Wrinkle in Time 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. Ready Player One

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 7. Ready Player One 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout 7. Ready Player One 8. Aquaman 9. Incredibles 2 10. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Annihilation
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Next in line: 6. Ready Player One 7. Ant-Man and the Wasp 8. Aquaman 9. A Wrinkle in Time 10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Sisters Brothers
5. Mary Poppins Returns

Next in line: 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 7. Mary Queen of Scots 8. Boy Erased 9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald 10. Incredibles 2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star Is Born (Shallow)
2. A Star Is Born (I’ll Never Love Again)
3. Boy Erased (Revelation)
4. Black Panther (All the Stars)
5. Deadpool 2 (Ashes)

Next in line: 6. A Star Is Born (Always Remember Us This Way) 7. Hearts Beat Loud (Hearts Beat Loud) 8. Dumplin (Girl in the Movies) 9. Mary Poppins Returns (???) 10. Smallfoot (Finally Free)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Minding the Gap
4. RBG
5. Free Solo

Next in line: 6. Fahrenheit 11/9 7. Maria by Callas 8. Whitney 9. The King 10. They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Capernaum
3. Cold War
4. Shoplifters
5. Never Look Away

Next in line: 6. Sunset 7. Burning 8. The Guilty 9. Dogman 10. Birds of Passage

Source: Hollywood News

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